TargetSmart Insights - September 10, 2020 - New Poll: Biden Holds 7-point edge over Trump in Pennsylvania

Joe Biden holds a 7-point lead over Donald Trump, 51 to 44 percent, among likely 2020 voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, based on the findings of our recent statewide poll conducted over Labor Day weekend. Our poll shows Trump’s favorability ratings lagging well behind Biden’s. Just 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters have a favorable personal opinion about the president, against 54 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. Biden’s personal ratings are evenly divided, 46 percent favorable against 45 percent unfavorable.

We identify a few key trends in matching the survey data back to the TargetSmart national voter file. This allows us to match individual survey respondents back to the file and draw additional insights, based on vote history, demographics, much more.

  • Biden holds a tremendous advantage (82 to 14 percent) among those voters who have already submitted a request to the Pennsylvania Secretary of State to vote-by-mail.
  • While Secretary of State data shows 27 percent of survey respondents have requested a vote-by-mail ballot, 36 percent of survey respondents indicate they intend to vote-by-mail in the 2020 election.
  • Biden holds a double-digit lead among voters who registered to vote after the 2016 general election, 54 to 42 percent.

Several key demographic trends also underpin Biden’s statewide advantage. The contest for president is tied among white voters in Pennsylvania, with 50 percent backing Biden and 46 percent supporting Trump. Biden leads 70 to 21 percent among voters of color. Biden’s overall advantage is driven by women, among whom he leads by double-digits, 54 to 41 percent, while the race is tied in Pennsylvania among men, 48 percent for Biden to 47 percent for Trump. Biden trails on the margin among non-college voters, 44 to 50 percent, while holding a commanding edge among college graduates, 60 to 35 percent.

Survey methodology TargetSmart Research Solutions designed and administered this dual-mode, 835 interview statewide poll of likely 2020 general election voters in Pennsylvania. 400 interviews were conducted over the telephone with live, professional agents, 225 on wireless phones and 175 on landline phones. 435 interviews were conducted online, with online respondents recruited to the survey via SMS and email solicits sourced from the TargetSmart voter file. The survey was administered from September 3-6, 2020. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.4 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies. Data on vote-by-mail requests reflected in this release was last updated on September 9, 2020.