Not Just Kansas; Women Motivated to Vote in States with Repro Rights at Risk
As we detailed in our analysis last week, the electorate in Kansas changed dramatically in the days after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision leaked. Kansans turned out in record numbers in the primary and delivered a victory for abortion rights, a win fueled by Democrats out registering Republicans by 9 points since the Dobbs decision was announced, with a staggering 70% of all new registrants being women.
Now, as we move ahead through additional state primaries and toward the midterm elections, there is evidence that what happened in Kansas isn’t an outlier. In states like Wisconsin and Michigan where reproductive rights are at stake this year, we’re seeing a meaningful gender gap in registration, whereby women are out-registering men by significant margins. In states like Rhode Island and New York where reproductive rights are protected by Democratic leaders in government, no gender gap exists.
Right now we only have data from elections officials in a handful of states. We’ll continue to analyze data as it comes in and share our findings here to see if this trend holds.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, abortion care has stopped since the Supreme Court’s ruling, as the state’s 1849 abortion ban makes its way through the courts. Additionally, state lawmakers recently rejected Gov. Tony Evers’ bid to repeal the state’s dormant abortion ban. And on the ballot incumbent Senator Ron Johnson is seeking election to a third term in a hotly contested race, a man who has said that abortion “might be a little messy for some people, but is not going away” and is “basically a non-issue”.
- According to TargetSmart data, among new registrants since June 24, women have out-registered men by 15.6%.
- Democrats make up 52.36% of all of those newly registered voters, compared with 16.59% of new voters registering as Republicans.
- Wisconsin is a perennial battleground. In 2020, President Biden carried the state by a margin of just 30,000 votes, receiving 49.5% of the vote to Trump’s 48.8%. In 2018, Governor Tony Evers (D) won the election by a similar margin of 30,000 votes, winning with 49.6% of the vote to his opponent Scott Walker’s 48.5%. In 2016, Donald Trump carried the state by a razor tight margin, 47.2% to Hillary Clinton’s 46.5%.
Michigan
In Michigan, the Dobbs decision revived a state abortion ban that makes abortion a felony and it is still being litigated. Additionally, Michigan may follow in Kansas’ footsteps and leave the constitutional right to an abortion up to its voters on election day this fall.
- Among the 12,879 new voters that have registered since the Dobbs decision, women are out-registering men by 8.1 percentage points.
- In the same time frame, Democrats are out-registering Republicans by 18 percentage points.
States Where Abortion is Protected
In states like New York or Rhode Island, where the right to choose is protected by state law and reinforced by state officials, the motivation amongst women to register to vote is much lower and the numbers aren’t telling the same story.
- In New York, amongst the nearly 1,900 voters registered since the Dobbs decision, 50.22% are female and 47.63% are male.
- In Rhode Island, men and women are registering at about the same rate, with 44.2% of new registrants female and 44.13% of new registrants male.
It’s important to note that we’re still in the early stages of understanding the impact of Dobbs on the electorate. While we get a clearer picture of how voters - women in particular - responded in the days and weeks following the leak and Supreme Court decision, we know that the impact overturning Roe will be felt in our politics for years to come.
Right now, all signs point to a fired up female electorate around the country in states where abortion rights are under immediate threat. At TargetSmart, we’ll continue to comb through the data as it’s made available and we’ll make sure to keep you informed as we do. Stay tuned and follow along @TBonier or email me directly with questions or feedback.