By: Tom Bonier

President Biden has rolled out the most progressive policy agenda in a generation. With aspirations to raise the minimum wage, build a path to citizenship for immigrants, curb gun violence, make it easier to vote, and address climate change by generating millions of new clean energy jobs, the Biden Administration is pushing policies aimed at transforming America. However, narrow majorities in Congress, well-funded opponents, and legislative delays all pose threats to achieving these ambitious policy outcomes.

We know that many of our clients are working to ensure Biden's agenda can move through both houses of Congress this legislative session. In the analysis below, we highlight the states and districts where clients may focus their advocacy resources and assets we can provide for targeted program execution.

Don't hesitate to reach out to sales@targetsmart.com to learn more.

Top Targets

Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the House and the Senate is evenly divided between parties with Vice President Kamala Harris able to break ties there in favor of Democrats.

Given the political dynamics and the impending 2022 elections, no matter the issue, the legislative targets remain the same: Frontline House members and incumbent Senators with narrow paths to reelection.

In March the DCCC named 32 frontline house targets. We expect those members will be at the crux of support for Biden's policy agenda.

District Elected member Party
AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran Dem
CA-10 Josh Harder Dem
CA-45 Katie Porter Dem
CA-49 Mike Levin Dem
CT-05 Jahana Hayes Dem
GA-06 Lucy McBath Dem
GA-07 Carolyn Bourdeaux Dem
IA-03 Cynthia Axne Dem
IL-14 Lauren Underwood Dem
KS-03 Sharice Davids Dem
ME-02 Jared F. Golden Dem
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin Dem
MI-11 Haley M. Stevens Dem
MN-02 Angie Craig Dem
NH-01 Chris Pappas Dem
NJ-03 Andy Kim Dem
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski Dem
NJ-11 Mikie Sherrill Dem
NV-03 Susie Lee Dem
NV-04 Steven Horsford Dem
NY-19 Antonio Delgado Dem
OR-04 Peter A. DeFazio Dem
PA-07 Susan Wild Dem
PA-08 Matt Cartwright Dem
PA-17 Conor Lamb Dem
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher Dem
TX-15 Vicente Gonzalez Dem
TX-32 Colin Z. Allred Dem
VA-02 Elaine G. Luria Dem
VA-07 Abigail Davis Spanberger Dem
WA-08 Kim Schrier Dem
WI-03 Ron Kind Dem

Drilling down even further, there were only 16 districts—nine held by Republicans, seven by Democrats—where voters split their ballots between the presidential and congressional races in the 2020 general election.

District Elected member Party Flipped seat House Margin President Margin Diff.
NY-24 John Katko Rep
R+10.2
D+9.1
19.2
PA-01 Brian K. Fitzpatrick Rep
R+13.1
D+5.8
19
ME-02 Jared F. Golden Dem
D+6.1
R+7.4
13.5
CA-21 David G. Valadao Rep ✔️
R+0.9
D+10.9
11.8
CA-39 Young Kim Rep ✔️
R+1.2
D+10.1
11.3
NE-02 Don Bacon Rep
R+4.6
D+6.5
11.1
CA-25 Mike Garcia Rep
R+0.1
D+10.1
10.2
PA-08 Matt Cartwright Dem
D+3.5
R+4.4
8
NJ-03 Andy Kim Dem
D+7.8
R+0.2
7.9
WI-03 Ron Kind Dem
D+2.7
R+4.7
7.4
TX-24 Beth Van Duyne Rep
R+1.3
D+5.4
6.7
FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar Rep ✔️
R+2.7
D+3.2
5.9
IL-17 Cheri Bustos Dem
D+4.1
R+1.6
5.7
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin Dem
D+3.6
R+0.8
4.4
CA-48 Michelle Steel Rep ✔️
R+2.1
D+1.5
3.6
IA-03 Cynthia Axne Dem
D+1.4
R+0.1
1.5

In the Senate, there are 34 seats up for election in 2022. Among those contests, the Cook Political Report identifies five in which incumbents will likely face stiff competition:

  • Cortez-Masto (D-NV)
  • Hassen (D-NH)
  • Kelly (D-AZ)
  • Johnson (R-WI)
  • Warnock (D-GA)
Also, five Republican senators have announced retirements ahead of 2022. The Cook Report rates three of those contests—in North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—as toss ups.

Available Assets

Many progressive groups already use TargetSmart's propriety national database to identify and activate supporters based on a wide range of criteria including age, race, voting behavior, political ideology, and more. In addition, we offer predictive models and highly-curated data sets especially useful for clients advocating for the Biden legislative agenda.

Activist Model

Our activist model scores each person in the U.S. voting age population on how likely they will take political action when prompted. This model is an excellent resource for targeting patch through call programs.

Click HERE to download an excel doc with state-by-state and district-by-district counts of people within each score decile. You can work with TargetSmart to access these audiences for online or offline activation.

Based on our current model:

  • 10.5 million people in the U.S voting age population are at least 80 percent likely to be an activist.
  • 2.3 million reside in a state with a competitive senate race.
  • 624,812 reside in a DCCC frontline district.
  • 231,326 reside in both.

Issue Models

TargetSmart offers several predictive models of nationwide support for the minimum wageclimate actionlabor unions, and other issues key to the politics of the American Jobs Plan. Other issue-based models help our clients find audiences receptive to focused messaging, for instance, about the economic challenges addressed within the AJP.

In particular, our progressive tax model scores each person in the U.S. voting age population on their likely alignment with progressive tax policies such as proposals to increase wealth taxes in order to fund government programs like the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan.

Click HERE to download an excel doc with state-by-state and district-by-district counts of people within each score decile. You can work with TargetSmart to access these audiences for online or offline activation.

Based on our current model:

  • 34 million people in the U.S voting age population are at least 90 percent likely to support progressive tax policies.
  • 7 million reside in a state with a competitive senate race.
  • 2.2 millione reside in a DCCC frontline district.
  • 819,705 reside in both.

BUSINESS LEADERS

We have built a rich data set of over 18.5 million U.S. business leaders, including 8.5 million business owners, 3.1 million of whom are likely Democrats. We compiled this asset by integrating more than 60 major commercial and government databases and matching those records to TargetSmart's VoterBase. The final product empowers ours clients to select highly customized audiences using a wide range of available fields like title, industry category, employee size, and sales volume.

Click HERE to download an excel doc with state-by-state counts of business owners with breakdowns by registration status, likely party and other demographic categories. You can work with TargetSmart to access these audiences for online or offline activation.